S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday September 11, 2025

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Market Summary for September 10, 2025:
Outlook for September 11, 2025:
Market Performance on September 10:
Major Indices: The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100 hit new all-time closing highs but closed off intraday highs, with the S&P up 0.3% on below-average volume. The market opened above R2 (6540), hit resistance at the 6550 level, and later dipped below R1 (6526) before closing slightly above it.
Sector Performance: Tech led the market, boosted by Oracle’s strong AI cloud report (up about 36%), while small and mid-caps underperformed. Energy saw a slight rebound, but discretionary and communication sectors were weaker.
Economic Data: Producer Price Index (PPI) came in lower than expected at -0.1% (vs. +0.3% forecast), signaling reduced inflationary pressure compared to last month’s 0.7% spike. Wholesale inventories also weaker at +0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected). MBA Mortgage Applications rose 9.2% after a prior -1.2%.
Market Sentiment: Neutral despite all-time highs, reflecting distrust in the rally. Negative divergences in momentum indicators (e.g., Chaiken Oscillator, McClellan Oscillator) and declining advance-decline ratios suggest vulnerability. However, bullish percent indexes and some momentum indicators (e.g., Stochastics, RSI) showed short-term improvement.
Interest Rates & Dollar: 10-year yield dropped to 4.03% from 4.07%, potentially supporting stocks. The dollar rose slightly, which may have pressured equities.
Technical Analysis:
Positive Indicators: Markets remain above key moving averages (20, 50, 100, 200-period), with growth outperforming value intraday. Bullish percent indexes for S&P and NASDAQ 100 improved, and the broader market (Amex, NASDAQ, NYSE) showed positive breadth.
Concerns: Negative divergences persist (e.g., S&P hitting all-time highs while advance-decline lines and momentum indicators weaken). Small and mid-cap growth-to-value ratios are declining, and the 20-period moving average study for the S&P dropped below 50.
Volatility: VIX remains low (below 20), but the VIX of VIX and skew index suggest expectations of a potential big move.
Outlook for September 11:
Key Event: Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is anticipated to drive market direction. A favorable CPI could push markets higher, while a disappointing report might exploit current vulnerabilities, especially given weak seasonality in late September.
Scenarios:
Bullish: A positive CPI reaction could break overhead resistance, driving markets “to the moon.”
Bearish: Negative divergences and weak seasonality could lead to a pullback, with markets testing 20-period moving averages.
Geopolitical/Domestic Events: Recent events (e.g., Utah assassination, Israel-Qatar conflict, domestic stabbing) are noted but unlikely to impact markets significantly.
Seasonality: Historical data since 2002 shows September 11 as generally positive for indices, but broader September trends remain weak, especially in the second half.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is at a tipping point, with positive trends across all timeframes but growing vulnerabilities due to negative divergences and weak small/mid-cap performance. The CPI report on September 11 will be critical. Investors should monitor pivot points (R1, R2) and 20-period moving averages for potential support levels if a pullback occurs. Oracle’s strength highlights AI’s dominance, but broader S&P 500 conviction remains shaky.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!