What to Watch Update for Monday September 28, 2026

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The S&P 500 held up reasonably well amid rising rates and seasonal weakness, with growth leadership improving, but breadth remains soft and follow-through is key.
The S&P 500 finished the week up 1.21% after a strong Monday (setting the weekly high, partly due to short-covering), some midweek selling with more conviction, and a recovery into Friday. Price action remains non-trending in the short- and intermediate-term (sideways weekly bars, ADX weak), yet the index has held up better than typical late-September weakness (historically the year’s softest period) and an up August. Rising rates (10-year above 5%, yields climbing across maturities) are a major focus; this is a return toward longer-term historical norms rather than the multi-decade decline that many investors are accustomed to. The economy appears solid, which can support stocks even as rates rise, though the market’s heavy reliance on falling rates in recent decades is creating adjustment friction. Japan (yen, Nikkei, 10-year yield above 3%) and Middle East geopolitics/oil remain watchpoints.
Positives:
Growth is starting to outperform value across multiple ratios (S&P growth/value, small-cap growth/value, Qs vs. S&P, large-cap growth, tech vs. staples.). Several are improving, moving above short-term averages or out of prolonged weakness, which historically supports stronger markets. Large-cap growth is solid (recent highs, above key MAs).
Risk-on indicators are constructive (risk-on/risk-off and high-beta/low-beta rising). Defensive areas (staples, utilities) are underperforming—supportive of a non-defensive posture.
Smart-money measures (accumulation/distribution, Chaikin money flow & oscillator.) are positive. Multiple momentum oscillators, Parabolic SAR (daily and weekly), and longer-term tools (Special K, weekly support levels) remain constructive or are improving. Price is above major moving averages (20/50/200-day area).
NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 set or approached closing all-time highs and held near/above the 50-day. Semiconductors, FAANG/MAG7, and AI-related names (AIQ, CHAT) are holding up or showing relative strength. The VIX remains contained below 20. Investors Intelligence bullish/bearish ratio improved but is watched as a potential contrarian signal if it rises further above 3.
Overall tone: large-cap/growth leadership is carrying the indexes; internal ratios and smart-money flows leaning positive.
Negatives and Risks:
Breadth is weak: The advance-decline lines (price and volume), new highs vs. new lows, percentage of stocks above key MAs, McClellan Oscillator/Summation Index, and Bullish Percent Indexes are mostly declining or below key thresholds (e.g., below 50). The equal-weight S&P is lagging the cap-weighted version, highlighting concentration.
Small- and mid-caps remain under pressure (partly rate-related); discretionary lagging staples. Volume has faded after options expiration. Short- and intermediate-term trend indicators (ADX) show no strong directional conviction—choppy, with frequent color (bullish/bearish) flips.
Sentiment is mixed/cautious (Fear & Greed still subdued despite NASDAQ highs; individual investors remain net bearish). Software relative strength has faded. Hindenburg Omen confirmation from early September remains active into early October.
Bottom line and what to watch:
The indexes (especially growth/tech-heavy ones) are holding up better than internals suggest—“the car looks washed, but the engine needs work.” Rising rates and bond-market pressure are the central question: so far, the S&P has absorbed them, but a larger divergence could turn negative. Seasonal headwinds persist through the final days of September; October historically improves. Key monitors include growth-vs-value follow-through, breadth recovery (advance-decline, new highs/lows, Percent above MAs), oil/geopolitics, Japan, volume, and whether rates keep climbing sharply. Economic data (strong jobless claims) remains supportive for now.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!