S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday December 16, 2025

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Summary of Daily Market Update for Monday, December 15, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday December 16, 2025:
Market Action on Monday Dec 15):
Opened higher (futures up about 0.5%, S&P briefly above 6850) but quickly faced selling pressure.
Spent most of the day below the unchanged level, tested support (20-period EMA from Friday), formed a potential double bottom, but failed to sustain any meaningful bounce.
Closed slightly lower: S&P –0.16%, choppy with little conviction in the afternoon.
Volume was above average.
Current Market Position:
S&P, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100 sitting at key support levels (20-period EMA, 50-period SMA, daily pivots converging).
Still above major moving averages (20, 50, 200), so longer-term trend remains positive.
However, short- and intermediate-term trends have turned trendless/non-trending.
Daily Parabolic SAR flipped negative (dot now on top) after Monday’s decline.
Key Themes & Internal Dynamics:
Continued rotation from growth to value (ongoing since last summer, now more evident across large-, mid-, and small-caps).
Mega-caps, tech, and growth stocks underperforming significantly; “Magnificent 7” and FAANG weak (e.g., Apple –1.5%, Amazon –1.6%, Microsoft near 200-day MA).
Small- and mid-caps had a strong prior week but gave back gains on Friday/Monday.
Growth-to-value ratios deteriorating: death cross forming on longer-term charts, breakdown below key MAs.
AI trade under pressure (concerns over ROI on massive capex), There are historical parallels where big innovations initially faced skepticism but ultimately succeeded.
Upcoming Catalyst – Tuesday, Dec 16:
Unusual timing for the employment situation report (jobs data).
Market reaction will be critical:
Positive/strong report → potential bounce and repair.
Weak report → could accelerate drift lower or breakdown below support.
Neutral/ignored (as “old news”) → continued chop and lack of conviction.
Other Notes:
Fed comments mixed: some dovish (quicker easing needed), some optimistic (inflation ↓, GDP ↑), but market didn’t rally on them.
Trump reportedly narrowing next Fed Chair choice to Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh; Polymarket odds shifting toward Warsh amid independence concerns.
Seasonality: Mid-to-late December historically positive; options expiration week also mildly bullish.
Broader sentiment: Shorter-term pessimistic, longer-term still optimistic.
Economic data Monday mixed (Empire Manufacturing much weaker than expected; housing index steady).
Interest rates ticking higher (10-year yield 4.19%), which can pressure equities if rise accelerates.
Outlook for Tuesday December 16, 2025:
Market vulnerable and showing internal weakness, but not yet in clear downtrend.
Still technically positive overall (above key MAs), but bias leaning more cautious/mixed short-term.
Watching for reaction to Tuesday’s jobs report as potential catalyst to either restart upside momentum or confirm further rotation/weakness.
Market-neutral strategies may suit current trendless environment until clarity emerges.
Overall tone: Cautiously observant – damage is accumulating under the surface, but support is holding and seasonality could help if the employment data cooperates.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xvFAa3Uf1scmVDXPa91WemCNOC6b-GK5/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!