S&P Hits 6900 As Forecast … What’s the Next Target? | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis

In this week’s Elliott Wave analysis for stock and option traders, I’m takes a small victory lap after the S&P’s breakout carried cleanly into the Fibonacci zigzag objective near 690 that I’ve been calling for the past few weeks.

It’s looking like a short term pivot high and I’m viewing this as a healthy reset unless rising rates and continued liquidity withdrawal from the Fed extend the pullback. The base case is consolidation around the 10‑day with a shot at continuation if 690 reclaims and holds; the risk case is a deeper correction should bonds stay weak and the VIX’s higher‑lows structure persist.

Rates and liquidity are the swing factors. TLT (20‑year prices) has sagged since the Fed delivered the widely expected October 25 bp cut but refused to commit to December, lifting TNX (10‑year yields). Markets had been pricing two cuts; with that now in doubt and the balance sheet still shrinking, valuations look stretched after an extended wave 3.

Metals reflect the reset. Lithium (LIT) tagged a wave‑3 high and cooled. GLD’s vertical surge snapped back neatly to a wave‑4 base near the 38.2% retrace above its 50‑day; it now needs to reclaim the 10‑day. SLV is a bit stronger—just above the 10‑day—with its wave‑4 also sitting at the 38.2% and near the 50‑day. The algorithm still flags wave‑4 as “in progress,” but the setup is constructive if momentum turns.

Energy is trying to firm. UNG has been carving a base with my line in the sand at 15; the AI model shows ~70% odds of a push there, and we’re back above the 50‑day as winter demand approaches. USO remains range‑bound as OPEC actively manages supply to keep prices in a preferred band—breakdowns have been short‑lived, rallies capped.

Volatility bears watching. The VIX spiked on tariff headlines and, on the weekly view, has started printing slightly higher lows while holding above ~15. That keeps a corrective scenario on the table even as “buy‑the‑dip” behavior reappears.

The dollar looks like a textbook post‑wave‑5 correction with flat, triangle, and zigzag paths all viable. I prefer a “Goldilocks” range—no impulsive break either direction—given the knock‑on effects a sharp dollar move would have on multinationals and global risk. (Yes, I’m watching the pending “dollar 2.0” commentary.)

Across indices, DIA’s wave‑5 is extended but holding above its 10‑day; QQQ nailed the 100% zigzag extension and paused—either great coil or meaningful resistance. IWM has been resilient relative to rising rates, though it’s slipped just under the 10‑day and needs to recapture it early next week.

Individual stock highlights: TSLA is pushing through 450; take out the wave‑3 high and 500 becomes a realistic magnet. NVDA caught a bid on signs of a tariff truce and the prospect of negotiated China sales—if realized, I expect the wave‑5 time/price box to activate. AMZN gapped to ~250 on earnings into a TAP box; I like the long‑term story but expect backing‑and‑filling after a vertical move. AAPL sits at a 161.8% zigzag extension after unusually bullish guidance—impressive, but I’d welcome digestion here.

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:: Sections in this Video ::
————————————————————————————
00:00 – Introduction
00:24 – US Market Update
02:21 – TLT
03:05 – TNX
03:30 – SPX & Fed Liquidity
04:43 – LIT
06:20 – GLD
07:11 – SLV
08:00 – UNG
08:59 – USO
09:58 – VIX
11:02 – US Dollar
12:48 – BITB
13:50 – ETHW
14:18 – DIA
14:49 – QQQ
15:34 – IWM
18:28 – TSLA
19:26 – NVDA
20:43 – AMZN
22:00 – NFLX
22:51 – AAPL
24:05 – AMD

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