S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday July 10, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Join to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxlaGAKm2ApEs13O1gWDltg/join

Market Update Summary for Wednesday, July 9, 2025:
Outlook for Thursday, July 10, 2025:
Market Performance on Wednesday, July 9:
Overall Sentiment: The market showed improvement with a positive but not overly exuberant tone. Sentiment is at 75, indicating caution as it nears concerning levels, but charts remain positive across all time frames.
Indices: NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 hit new all-time highs, while the S&P 500 was close but didn’t set a new high. Small caps performed well, continuing their improvement.
Market Movement: The day started with a gap higher, reaching above R2 (6254) but stalled under 6270. After falling below R1 and R2, the market found support, built a base, and closed above 6260, up 0.61% with below-average volume, typical for summer.
Key Drivers: Falling 10-year yields (from 4.42% to 4.34%) supported stocks. Geopolitical concerns and tariff talks had minimal impact, with markets growing immune to trade war fears. NVIDIA’s market cap exceeded $4 trillion, drawing media attention.
FOMC Minutes: Indicated a stronger likelihood of rate cuts by year-end, boosting market optimism.
Technical Indicators: Mixed signals—short-term RSI and TTM squeeze are extreme positive, but StochRSI and CCI 14 show weaker momentum. Bullish Percent Indexes for S&P and NASDAQ 100 are extreme but positive. The market remains far above key moving averages, signaling strength.
Economic Reports:
MBA Mortgage Applications: Surged 9.4%, showing improvement despite rising yields.
Wholesale Inventories: Down 0.3%, as expected, with no significant market impact.
Sector Performance:
Strong Sectors: Utilities led, with tech and discretionary advancing. Growth areas such as semiconductors and biotech doing well.
Weak Sectors: Real estate, energy, and staples (defensive) underperformed.
Financials: Up slightly but underperforming the S&P, testing the 200-day moving average on a ratio basis, raising concerns.
Other Observations:
Dollar: Virtually unchanged, with a downtrend supporting stocks.
Sentiment: High at 75, nearing euphoria per Yahoo Finance. Goldman Sachs gauge improving back to neutral.
Seasonality: Positive for early July, especially for S&P and NASDAQ, based on historical data since 1950.
Charts: Growth-to-value ratios improved, with discretionary outperforming staples. Semiconductors and large-cap growth ETFs hit all-time highs. Small caps above their 200-day moving average.
Outlook for July 10:
Key Report: Initial and continuing jobless claims, the main economic focus in a light report week.
Other Events: 30-year bond auction and treasury budget (not a major market mover). Geopolitical and domestic developments may influence sentiment.
Seasonality: Neutral to positive for the Dow, positive for S&P and NASDAQ.
Technical Outlook: Positive on all time frames with a recent longer-term golden cross.
Concerns: Financial sector underperformance and extreme sentiment (75) warrant monitoring. NASDAQ 100 momentum is flat and risks turning negative.
Conclusion:
The market remains positive and trending, supported by falling yields and optimism for rate cuts. Thursday’s jobless claims and bond auction will be key, with seasonality favoring gains.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1w5sDNG-vbdZCy4LdMvZ0EeMIvX5MKiGc/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!